AI’s economic impact could redefine jobs and productivity trends

AI is increasingly being viewed as a potential general-purpose technology, similar to electricity, computers and the internet, with the capacity to reshape economies over time, according to Bank of Canada External Deputy Governor Michelle Alexopoulos.

Speaking at the Ottawa Economics Association and Canadian Association for Business Economics Spring Policy Conference, Alexopoulos said technological change usually unfolds gradually. Still, some innovations spread across industries and transform the wider economy. AI has developed over the past decades, but recent advances have accelerated adoption among people and businesses.

If AI becomes a general-purpose technology, it could eventually reshape jobs, improve productivity and make businesses more competitive, potentially leading to higher wages, lower costs for consumers and reduced inflationary pressure. Alexopoulos cautioned that forecasts will change as new information becomes available, but said AI’s potential effects on productivity, inflation and the labour market cannot be ignored.

Global uptake is expanding, though unevenly. Investment in AI data centres has risen sharply, particularly in the United States, while constraints such as power generation capacity and skills shortages continue to affect adoption. In Canada, adoption is gaining momentum but remains uneven across sectors, with some businesses saying AI does not yet meet their needs or that workers lack the required skills.

Early signs of modest productivity gains are emerging, as AI may allow economies to produce more goods and services without requiring people to work harder. Because productivity affects estimates of future economic growth, the Bank of Canada sees AI’s potential impact as relevant to monetary policy.

Labour-market effects remain mixed. Alexopoulos noted that some large technology firms have linked recent job cuts to AI, and studies show weaker hiring in highly exposed roles such as entry-level coding and customer service. However, she said the evidence so far does not show large-scale job losses, but rather that AI is transforming work tasks instead of replacing people.

Why does it matter?

AI’s possible emergence as a general-purpose technology could affect productivity, wages, inflation and labour demand over time. The Bank of Canada’s framing matters because it links AI adoption directly to macroeconomic policy, rather than just to business innovation. The central question is whether AI raises productivity broadly enough to support growth and lower costs, or whether uneven adoption deepens gaps between firms, sectors and workers.

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